Today Leeds United take on the (statistically) the worst team in the Championship, when Bristol City visit Elland Road. City's sloppy defence contributed to a rare three away points for United earlier in the season.
Barnsley wasn't the game we hoped for. The one single positive perhaps was the landing of two bets: Under 2.5 and a first half clean sheet for Leeds. Tomorrow, however, we should get our own
Leeds come in to the game constantly displaying the form of two different teams. At the moment, we pretty much know what will happen at home and we know what will happen away. Being someone that lives in Bristol and does see a fair bit of Bristol City, there's little danger that we'll drop our winning home record tomorrow - believe me.
Tomorrow we are playing a team that will still be in the bottom three at the end of the season, regardless of what Sean O' Driscoll has planned. As good a manager as he is, he isn't that good.
After five straight home wins in a row United will take to the field looking to make it 6 tomorrow, and despite the possible adverse weather conditions I'd still expect the likes of Becchio, Tonge and Diouf especially to be a step above the opposition.
Leeds are priced at 1.85 with Bet365, and those odds surprise. Draw is 3.86 with Pinnacle, while Bristol City are 4.50 with 888Sport.
For me on a normal day the odds would be more along the lines of 1.6, 4.0 & 6. I think thebookmakers are making too much of Leeds overall form, despite what we're doing at home, and they're also giving O' Driscoll some respect.
However, it's an inherited squad of poor players and it's a squad that have conceded 2 or more goals 18 times already this season, and that's reflect in the odds of 1.6 at Coral for Leeds to score 2+ goals in this game.
Despite their poor defensive record Bristol City do actually find a way to score goals, however. Although that ability may be hit with the absence of Albert Adomah, their tricky winger who would fit any team in this league. I still wouldn't touch the 3.10 with Coral for a Leeds Clean Sheet, however.
Given the way Leeds attack and score at home recently, and always find a way to win, I'm going to have to say I just can't see anything other than a Leeds win.
City will come and play with spirit and more fight than usual, and it might be slightly tighter than usual so I'm expecting no route. I also expect both teams to net in this game, so we should see a few goals at Elland Road tomorrow.
In light of the stats and the way these two teams will happily attack each other - and throw in a severe lack of any defensive quality from the visitors - I'm backing goal based markets, and Leeds United.
Over 2.5 @ 1.80 with Betdaq
Special Market: Leeds win & Over 2.5 @ 2.50 with Bet365