Tomorrow, Leeds United travel to Pride Park in a lunch time kick off with a careless price on their heads. The home side are favourites at 7/5 (2.40) with Coral, the draw is at 13/5 (3.66) with Pinnacle and Leeds United are at a lengthy 23/10 (3.10) with William Hill.
The form side, Leeds, have won their last 3 games against top 3 sides Leicester City and Crystal Palace, and managed a 4 goal haul against local rivals Huddersfield in another dominant performance.
The home side are currently out of form, and although on the face of it their home record is undeniably strong with five wins, four draws and only one loss – Derby are yet to beat a top half side despite a poor run of form, Leeds are.
Draws against Brighton and Blackburn perhaps represent good points, but 1-1 against a Cardiff side who played with ten men for 30 minutes doesn't.
Leeds have picked up 12 points away and we haven’t really impressed me at all this season until the end of last month. New ownership, a few new faces, and all of a sudden we’ve beaten a few unstoppable sides and destroyed our local rivals.
Let’s get one thing straight – the way Leeds are playing, the poor form over the years against Derby means absolutely nothing, as we’ve not ever gone in to a match against them as the better side, so it’s just one of those stats. Tomorrow, we start as the better side.
Given Derby’s inability to see out a lot of games and concede late goals – even a home – and added Leeds’ constant lack of stability at the back the first bet seems a fairly obvious Over 2.5 goals. The price of 5/6 (1.82) is by far the highest, with Marathon bet, as the price is dropping to 1.6 and below at most other places.
Derby have a dangerous hitman in the speedy Theo Robinson, who has 8 goals, and Leeds have the even deadlier Lucciano Becchio who has 12 goals for the season.
In the 10 games Becchio has netted in this season, Leeds haven’t lost. A part of our bad form was probably down to the longstanding absence of Ross McCormack and the injury to Becchio. Becchio is comfortably the bookies most likely player to net tomorrow, priced at 6/4 (2.50) with Sky Bet. Robinson is priced at 7/4 (2.77) with Coral.
Given the active goal threat and the open nature of what could be an open, attacking game, our trusted corners bet seems a good price as the line has dropped this week from 12 corners to Over 11.5 corners, although the price of 17/20 (1.85) still remains at Bet365.
This week’s bets:
Over 11.5 Corners @ 17/20 with Bet365
Over 2.5 goals @ 5/6 with Marathon
Becchio to score @ 6/4 with SkyBet
Over 11.5 Corners @ 17/20 with Bet365
Over 2.5 goals @ 5/6 with Marathon
Becchio to score @ 6/4 with SkyBet