Tomorrow night the mighty whites that are Leeds United travel to Turf Moor to face Burnley in a 7.45 kick off. The two sides are neck and neck on 20 points through 14 games, and a win for either side would potentially catapult them in to the play-off positions.
Burnley are rightful home favourites in this one and the bookies have slapped a fairly valueless price of 4/3 (2.33) with Betdaq whilst given recent performances a draw may be more likely and that’s priced at 11/4 (3.70) with Pinnacle. Leeds United can be backed at 23/10 (3.31) with Pinnacle also.
Leeds United have taken 12 points in four games against the Clarets since their relegation to the Championship, and there’s a noticeable trend to be had in this one.
Burnley have thrown away a 1-0 lead on two occasions and a 2-0 lead at home on a separate occasions to allow Leeds to pick up those four points, and if you’re an over optimistic punter then Leeds to win from behind can be found as high as 14/1 (15) with Boylesports.
Three of the four meetings between the sides have gone over the 2.5 goal mark, even if it has needed as many as seven strikes in the last 20 minutes of this fixture – and all from Leeds United. That trend is something that is easily explained given the goal scoring, and goal gifting, exploits of Burnley.
The home side have hit the back of the net 28 times in 14 games which simply equates to a two goal average. Leeds, however, have managed a slightly less impressive but still commendable 22 goals. Something has to give when they look at the amounts conceded and recent performances.
Despite their tremendous goal tally, the Lancashire club still have a negative goal difference after shipping 30 goals, which is more than two a game.
Leeds have a renewed and refreshing amount of depth in defence this season – at least if compared to calamities like Andy O’ Brien and Darren O’ Dea – and I often have faith in us to keep it tight in games as we have done, especially with big Rudolph sat in the middle.
It’s been shown in recent games as Leeds have consistently found a way to claw their way back in to games and not once have they caved in and rolled over to a heavy score line as we’ve seen so often in the past two years.
Despite the clear improvement and stubborn resilience, however, there have still been plenty of goals as both teams have netted in all seven of Leeds’ away games this season and that’s something that can be backed by the safer punter at steady odds of 3/5 (1.60) with Paddy Power.
Whilst we are on the subject of goals, it’s only fair to mention two of the Championship’s top goal scorers. Despite only coming on as a sub after injury in the last game Becchio made an instant impact and has tallied 9 goals in 14 games despite the setback, whilst Austin has been unstoppable, netting 16.
Another cheeky bet for the riskier punters would be backing Charlie Austin as the first goal scorer at Turf Moor 11/2 (6.5) with Leeds’ very own Sporting Bet and Becchio is priced to hit the back of the
net at any time during the game at 6/4 (2.50) with Sky Bet.
Despite all the speculative odds thrown around, I’m going to go with the stats of both previous fierce encounters and Burnley’s free scoring ways in this one. The home side have shown on their day they can break the 2.5 goal mark with ease by themselves, while Leeds have scored and conceded in all 7 away games as I’ve said.
It’s a tough little game to call, especially being at this time of year where a win can shape your Christmas positioning.
The two tips I’ve come up with are Over 2.5 goals at a modest and likely 4/6 (1.75) with Marathon
and an equally modest 4/6 (1.75) for there to be a goal in the last 15 minutes of the game with
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